Why we overestimate our skill level

Ranking MLP teams ahead of 2025 season

March 27, 2025

 

Almost all pickleball players have been guilty of it at some point.

Overestimating our skill level comes as naturally as a third-shot drive to a former tennis player. But it’s not just us. People in all walks of life tend to overestimate their abilities, especially early on when learning a new skill.

It’s called the Dunning-Kruger effect. In simple terms, it says that people with low ability in a specific area tend to overestimate their competence and see themselves as more skilled than they actually are.

Sound familiar?

Also in this issue:

  • College pickleball is no joke 😮

  • Preseason MLP power rankings 📝

  • New pickleball spinoff just dropped 😍

  • Up your game with an Erne ball machine 📈

  • Pickleball on the national stage 🤩

  • Our Necker Island recap video 🏝️

Let’s cook. 🧑‍🍳

HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEEK

This is college pickleball 🎓

In the spirit of March Madness, we bring you this insane college pickleball rally.

We’ve known for awhile that the game is getting younger, and with the UPA and DUPR teaming up recently to form a new collegiate pickleball tour, the competition is only getting more fierce.

Will pickleball become an NCAA sanctioned sport at some point? If these kids keep playing like this, that might not be far off.

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FEATURED STORY

The Dunning-Kruger effect (but make it pickleball)

Whether it’s a drastic exaggeration or bumping yourself up by an extra half point, overestimating your skill level is an easy trap to fall into — and it’s not unique to pickleball.

You might have learned about the Dunning-Kruger effect in a psychology class in high school or college.

The theory in simple terms is this: People with low ability in a specific area tend to overestimate their competence and see themselves as more skilled than they actually are.

Sound like somebody you know from pickleball? It’s not their fault – it’s just science.

There are four “stops” along a journey to learning a skill that are described in the Dunning-Kruger effect:

Mt. Stupid 😎

A lot of pickleball players gather here. The scenery is great and the weather is balmy.

Because the basic skills of the game are relatively easy to learn compared to other individual sports like golf or tennis, players can catch on quickly and be fairly competitive at their local open play in no time.

That lulls many into a false sense of security – “Hey, I’m pretty good at this.”

The Valley of Despair 😭

While pickleball is an easy game to learn, it is a hard one to master. That usually becomes apparent to players as they start to play competitively.

Maybe they enter a local tournament or sign up for a PPA Tour stop in their area.

If it’s a big bracket and they’re in the wrong division, it’s usually not pretty. That’s OK. Somebody has to go 0-2 at these tournaments.

The Slope of Enlightenment 🤓

So you got smacked in your last tournament and it’s back to the drawing board.

You’ve seen what a good 4.5 (or perhaps a sandbagging 4.5) looks like up close, and now you know what you need to improve on.

Maybe it’s time for a lesson with a local pro. Or time to invest in a better paddle – like one from our current top 10 list. Or time to add a fitness aspect and more drilling sessions to your routine.

The Plateau of Sustainability 💪

You’re still improving, just at a slower pace than you were when you first started playing. But by now you're more aware and accepting of your skill level.

ALTERNATIVE PICKLE

These people got creative with pickleball spinoffs

Pickleball on the beach? Pickleball on ice? Pickleball with tennis serves?

We’re seeing more and more variety in how people are using their paddles, and we’re here for it. One thing all of those videos have in common: Fun.

THE PROS

MLP is almost here. How do the teams stack up?

Spring is in the air and with a revamped pro schedule in 2025 that means Major League Pickleball is near.

The season-opening event is in Orlando on April 24-27 at the USTA National Campus and all 16 Premier Level teams will be in action.

With a month to go before the first ball is struck, we took a closer look at each team in the Premier Level for our preseason power rankings. The rankings will be updated after each event, so stay tuned for future changes as we see these new rosters in action.

You can find the full rankings on our site, but we’ll give you the top 3 here:

#1: New Jersey 5s

Likely starters: Anna Leigh Waters, Meghan Dizon, Will Howells, Zane Navratil
Bench players: Christa Gecheva, Craig Johnson

The 5s were very close to winning the championship last season and they got better by adding Dizon in place of Mari Humberg.

#2: Dallas Flash

Likely starters: Jorja Johnson, Tyra Black, JW Johnson, Augie Ge
Bench players: Wyatt Stone, Tatiana Ruhl

They won the title in 2024 and they got the band back together by picking up Ge in the free-agency draft earlier this month, so it’s hard to justify having them any lower than No. 2.

#3: St. Louis Shock

Likely starters: Anna Bright, Kate Fahey, Hayden Patriquin, Gabe Tardio
Bench players: Felicity Di Laura, Erik Lange

This hasn’t been talked about much, but Bright has made a noticeable jump since switching to the new JOOLA Scorpeus Pro IV 14mm (buy it here). Meanwhile, Patriquin, Tardio and Fahey have all improved since last season.

SAY NO MORE

What better way to meet the neighbors?

This week’s PPA Tour Red Rock Open has a slightly different look to it.

The tour is debuting a new format that will showcase the semifinals in each division on Saturday -- that means matches (through the quarterfinal rounds) have been moved up a day from their traditional spot, with singles being played Wednesday, mixed doubles Thursday and gender doubles Friday.

All semifinal matches in each division will be played on championship court on Saturday, and Championship Sunday action from Little Valley Sports Complex will be available exclusively on FOX from 4:30-6:30 p.m. ET.

This will be the fifth time since 2024 that the PPA Tour has had an exclusive slot on a major TV network, with three prior broadcasts on FOX and one on CBS.

PRODUCT OF THE WEEK

The ERNE ball machine is finally available on Pickleball Central!

GREAT NEWS: The ERNE ball machine is back in stock and now available on Pickleball Central. So not only can you get the best drilling partner known to man, but now you’ll also get the best customer service in the industry when you order one.

And with the outdoor pickleball season just around the corner in most areas of the country, it’s the perfect time to invest in your game.

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